Italian Flags – Engineering Synergy

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Why do we need to consider using an Italian Flag of uncertainty?
Because we are collectively realising that the world is more complex than we previously thought.

The Italian Flag can help in at least four ways:-

  • to make better decisions
  • to manage uncertainty
  • to allow us individually and collectivelyto admit we don’t know when we genuinely don’t know
  • provide a means by which we can embark on a ‘learning journey’ through complexity together

What is an Italian Flag of uncertainty?

We have characterised uncertainty in the FIR space (Fuzziness, Incompleteness and Randomness).

Our purpose now is to have a relatively simple and practical measure of evidence that can be used on open complex problems. We propose a mapping (i. e. a functional relationship) from the FIR space to an interval probability measure that we colour in and call an Italian Flag (IF).

The mapping is essentially a judgement of the strength of evidence assessed on a scale [0, 1]. We appraise quite separately the evidence in favour of and the evidence against a proposition. In particular we are concerned with the proposition, at a point in time, that a process is heading for success or failure.

The mapping is a judgement but we have found that a useful way to think about it is as a vote (see further down this page).

Evidence in favour is coloured green, as shown here.  slide1-e1502266674653-2095559

Evidence against is assessed on a scale [0, 1] and is coloured red, starting from 1 and working back to zero. The difference in the middle is white and makes an Italian flag.

If the evidence is, for example, [0.4, 0.9] there is 40% green, 10% red and 50% white.

There are three interesting special cases. Evidence=[1, 1], which is all green, and means that there is complete evidence for and no evidence against (no red). Evidence=[0, 0], which is all red, and means that there is complete evidence against and no evidence for (no green).

Evidence=[0, 1], which is all white, and means there is no green evidence for and no red evidence against, and so we really ‘do not know’.